By the Nationale Agenda Laadinfrastructuur / National Charging Infrastructure Agenda (NAL)) and ElaadNL
Commissioned by the National Charging Infrastructure Agenda (NAL), researchers from ElaadNL have mapped out the expected growth of electric mobility in the Netherlands. They expect the growth of electric cars, vans, trucks and construction vehicles to continue strongly in both the short and longer term. The researchers also looked at the impact of this growth on charging infrastructure and on the power grid. Charging infrastructure will need to grow along with it, and the power grid will need to be used smartly in times of grid congestion. The researchers see good opportunities to do so. The results of the study form an important basis for policy and future plans by public authorities and grid operators.
The Outlook Mobility examines the expected growth of electric passenger cars, logistics vehicles (vans and trucks) and construction equipment in the Netherlands. In terms of energy demand, this represents around 90 percent of all mobility. According to the researchers, by 2050 the entire passenger car fleet of 11 million cars will be electric, as will the complete fleet of 1.2 million vans. Of the 210,000 trucks expected to be on the road in 2050, 90% are expected to be fully electric. For construction, differences are expected: light equipment will then be 100% electric, while heavy equipment will be electric to a large extent.
Together, the vehicle categories studied will have an electricity demand of 51.8 TWh in 2050. The middle scenario of Netbeheer Nederland (Koersvaste middenweg) expects total electricity consumption in 2050 to reach 505 TWh, so more than 10% will be due to mobility. By comparison, in 2025 total electricity consumption in the Netherlands was 116 TWh, of which 4 TWh was for mobility (3.5%). The researchers also looked at where electric vehicles will be charged. They expect a combination of various locations, including charging at home, at work and at (heavy-duty) charging hubs.
In this Outlook Mobility , the impact of grid congestion has been quantified. The study looked at the use of charging infrastructure for charging electric vehicles and the resulting load on the power grid. And that analysis offers perspective. For example, the researchers developed a bandwidth of the possible additional public charging demand that the current charging network can accommodate if, due to grid congestion, there is no grid capacity for new charging infrastructure. This could be done, for instance, by increasing the utilisation rate and adding charging infrastructure without additional demand for grid capacity.
The load of mobility on the power grid can decrease significantly by charging electric vehicles on working days largely outside peak hours (between 16.00 and 21.00 hr). The researchers examined which charging sessions can be moved, in whole or in part, outside peak hours, without causing inconvenience to the EV driver. How does that work?
When vehicles are connected to a charge point for longer than they are charging, the electricity demand of the charging session can be shifted, in whole or in part, outside peak hours. This flexibility is unique to electric mobility and, according to calculations by the researchers, can offer the energy system up to 6.7 GW (gigawatt) of flexible capacity during the evening peak in 2050.
In the coming years, more and more cars will also be able not only to charge, but also to feed power back to the home or to the power grid (bidirectional charging or V2G). When the potential of bidirectional home charging is included in the calculations, the potential flexibility of electric mobility theoretically even rises to 11.2 GW. In this way, electric mobility presents an opportunity in an overloaded electricity grid.
Based on current knowledge, the researchers at ElaadNL estimate that the predicted growth of electric mobility may still be achievable despite grid congestion. This by making optimal use of existing and new charging infrastructure, shifting charging demand to another type of charging location and using the flexibility potential. Using this flexibility does require clear preconditions, such as standardisation, interoperability between systems, appropriate incentives for users and good cooperation between grid operators, public authorities and market parties. Without these preconditions, an important part of the potential will remain unused.
“Studies such as this are valuable because they provide insight into where the challenges and points of attention lie when it comes to the roll-out of charging infrastructure in the near and somewhat longer-term future. Grid congestion is also a complex challenge for charging infrastructure, requiring smart solutions and close cooperation between government, grid operators and market parties. Of all charging transactions, 57% are already smart. With smart charging as the norm and bidirectional charging within reach, the EV makes an important contribution to a future-proof energy system. It is good to see that all these parties are truly working together to allow charging infrastructure to grow responsibly in line with increasing demand. That will not always be easy, but a great deal is possible.”
The researchers at ElaadNL had already produced Outlooks before. New in this Outlook Mobility is that it has not only been coordinated with the grid operators, but also with the NAL regions and the national government. As a result, it has become an integrated NAL product with broad support. In addition, plug-in hybrids are now included in the forecasts. Alongside the longer term, which previous Outlooks mainly focused on, there is now also more attention for the shorter term. Users (public authorities, grid operators) can also zoom in on a specific neighbourhood or area. Useful, for example, for local policymakers who want to know how many public charging points will be needed in their municipality.
An important advantage is also that this Outlook is not limited to a single sector, such as passenger cars or e-trucks, but is integrated. Studying the different modalities (passenger cars, vans, trucks and construction equipment) in an integrated way also provides new insights. For example, it shows what overlap exists in the use of charging infrastructure and whether there are possibilities to shift between charging locations. Construction vehicles and e-trucks, for instance, can sometimes use the same fast-charging infrastructure.
Please visit the Dutch online interactive Outlook.
Since 2019, the National Charging Infrastructure Agenda (NAL) has been working on the task of ensuring that the development of charging infrastructure in the Netherlands keeps pace with the roll-out of all forms of electric transport. All electric drivers must always be able to charge their vehicle safely and smartly, wherever they are. Not only on their own driveway, but also in public spaces, at business parks and at petrol stations. Without congestion on the electricity grid.
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